How do I use the probability feature in Xcel?

[Guest]

I heard that you can use Microsoft Xcel to compute probability. I've written
down about 30 different games of rock, paper, scissors in an attempt to find
patterns of what people do. I'd like to enter this information into the
computer and then just have the computer tell me what is most likely to come
next during a game.

ie. If I told Xcel that someone did rock, rock, scissors, could Xcel then
tell me what is most likely to come next from the information it's already
been given about previous games?

Thanks very much.

 

[Jason.Alden.Benoit]

It would be complicated I would assume and likely be easiest to involve
macros. I am not sure. However, it sounds like you'd like to cheat
someone. And they may not even know that they have a pattern. Who is to
say there is a strong enough one that your computer's processor could
figure it out where you haven't. Good luck.

 

[Jon Peltier]

The probability that X happens is the number of times that X happens divided
by the number of times anything happens.

P(rock) = N(rock)/(N(rock)+N(paper)+N(scissors))

Looking for patterns is much more complicated. The probability that a rock
follows a rock is:

P(rock follows rock) = N(rock follows rock)/(N(rock follows rock)+N(paper
follows rock)+N(scissors follows rock))

so now you can only consider the trials after the previous trial was a rock.

And it gets more complex from here.

- Jon

 

[Guest]

I realize that it gets very complex. That's why I was hoping a computer
program could help me.

And to Jason- I'm confused as to how you think it would be considered
cheating.