That has got to be a prime example of a logical fallacy known as a red
herring. We were discussing computer operating systems, not ancient
empires.
Well, that's disingenuous. We are discussing not just operating systems,
but Microsoft's global hegemony, which amounts to an empire of sorts.
I think it can be useful to compare the "Windows Empire" with political
empires, as long as one doesn't carry the analogies too far. The common
theme in the demise of empires seems to be that they rely on static
models for key processes, and these models eventually confront new forces
against which they are inadequate.
If you look at the Roman Empire, it relied on a central government that
was insulated from the vast bulk of Roman territory/population and was
answerable only to a mob in the city of Rome itself. That produced the
"bread and circuses" philosophy we have all heard about, and a decay in
governing institutions coincidental with waves of people flooding in from
the north and east.
Now, if you look at Microsoft, it relies on a revenue model that was
phenomenally successful in the 1990s. MS shareholders have gotten used
to extraordinarily high rates of return on invested capital and fully
expect such returns to continue in the future. They want their bread and
circuses! But the economic assumptions of the 1990s are no longer
valid. It costs exponentially more to build a new OS than it did a
decade ago, and the perceived value of the upgrade is much less than it
was, for example, when Win95 replaced Win3x. Also, free alternatives
(various flavors of Linux) have emerged as a reasonable choice for many
users.
So, it is fair to ask, how much longer can the Windows Empire continue to
thrive as it has for the past 20 years? How much longer will consumers,
business and OEMs continue to pay fat licensing fees so that MS
shareholders can have their bread and circuses?
Charlie