Given the cutthroat margins in the computer industry, 10%-25% of the
cost of making the computer is not "insignificant" no matter how many
millions of dollars of business you do.
That I'll agree to. No matter how good Linux gets, it's going to take
a big manufacturer with some staying power to persuade people to give
up the devil they know.
Everyone's waiting around for someone else to be first.
That's very likely to be Mark Shuttleworth. He founded Thawte and
sold it for over $500 million so he has both the deep pockets and the
business skills. Judging by Ubuntu he also groks "user-friendly"
better than anyone else in the Linux world, which may be the most
important thing of all.
Whoever the OEM is, I'm certain the distro will be Ubuntu - and I
think Shuttleworth will do whatever advertising is necessary to get
Ubuntu accepted by the market. In fact it seems he's already doing
some marketing - he's mailing out free CD's to anyone who asks, and
Ubuntu billboards have been appearing in southern California.
The big players are being dragged in kicking and screaming because
governments and large businesses are beginning to adopt Linux. Losing
a bid for 5,000 machines because they're not linux-compatible tends
to get peoples attention, so most OEMs now have Linux compatible
machines. They don't advertise them as such because they're afraid
Microsoft will punish them with higher license fees, but they're
available if a business specifically asks for them.