There are no guarantees on any upgrade and clean installs are always
recommended over upgrades. Take hustedj's advice and back up your data to
cd, also the new hard drive is what I would also recommend. Leave the old
one out during a clean install and there's no chance of loosing your data
because you can always go back.
Even though the risk is small, you can never be completely sure.
That's why you should always backup anything you can't afford to
lose before taking any big step like an operating system upgrade.
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