OT: One for Doug and the enviroloonies.

C

Conor

So Doug, right or wrong?

Big Climate's strange 'science'
Would you trust a software engineer to build a bridge?

By John Atkinson ? More by this author

Published Thursday 14th February 2008 11:55 GMT

Comment I had to chuckle to myself reading a letter here at The
Register, recently.

"David Whitehouse - although a respected scientist - is still only one
voice and his speciality is astrophysics not climate," wrote a reader.

This is one of my greatest concerns about so called climate science.
Climate science is a very, very new field. So new, in fact, that it has
had little chance for its assertions to be tested.

For example, climate models are being developed with very little
ability to test out of sample. Furthermore, the climate science
bandwagon has come about solely because of supposed anthropogenic
climate change, which means that their funding is intrinsically tied to
climate change happening and being man-made. A more self-interested
group I could not find anywhere, even looking at the researchers who
were paid by big tobacco companies to tell us cigarettes are safe.

The scientists who interest me in this field are those who can draw on
the experience of a lot of people who have come before them. And
uniformly in these areas I find scepticism. People who write
mathematical models of complex systems for a living tend to find the
climate models very unconvincing. Geologists find the arguments very
unconvincing. Engineers find the arguments unconvincing. And
astrophysicists find the arguments unconvincing.

Why? Well the answers are clear.


Climate groupthink
==================

The climate models seem to be largely driven by over-fitting to a small
sample set and positive feedback. The small sample set - at most 30
years of accurate data - might be enough to try and predict one or two
years, but 50 year predictions? Ignoring the biggest effect on global
warming - water vapour - is surely going to cause problems.

Positive feedback in engineering invariably results in unstable systems
- so we have to ask why do most if not all of the climate models rely
on it to get doomsday predictions? For the Earth to have survived as
long as it has with a stable climate, through major events like ice-
ages or volcanic eruptions, there is little doubt that a degree of
negative climate feedback is essential.

Geologists will quite happily explain how major climate changes in the
Earth are a result of geological changes. Remember that more carbon is
trapped in limestone than in either plant life or fossil fuels (or both
put together for that matter). Ice ages and volcanic eruptions are all
things that will unarguably change the climate. Yet, with the notable
exception of the extinction of the dinosaurs, it seems life has happily
trundled along through it all. We're the living proof.

Of course, it's also interesting to see changes over shorter time
periods. If you go to see the Roman ruins at Ephesus in Turkey, the
guide will point out that the harbour is miles from where the nearest
sea is today. Sea levels go up and down for many reasons - carbon
dioxide not being one of them. Somehow, we survive.

Of course, astrophysicists and astronomers will happily tell us about
global warming on other planets in the solar system, a period of
extensive solar activity and the like. But they get poo-pooed just like
all the other "real scientists" who have a view. Climate scientists
have to disagree with real scientists or they would lose their funding.


--
Conor

As a Brit I'd like to thank the Americans for their help in the war
against terror because if they'd not funded the IRA for 30 years, we
wouldn't know how to deal with terrorists.
 
F

Fitz

As a Brit I'd like to thank the Americans for their help in the war
against terror because if they'd not funded the IRA for 30 years, we
wouldn't know how to deal with terrorists.<

Conor - Origin: Gaelic Meaning: lover of hounds, hound nobleman.
Possible the IRA infiltrated you British bloodline?
 
J

JAD

As a Brit I'd like to thank the Americans for their help in the war
against terror because if they'd not funded the IRA for 30 years, we
wouldn't know how to deal with terrorists.


Your Welcome, Please visit again....Go Irish!
 

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