Yes it seems more and more likely the Billionaires club will take the first step initially
How many of these will want in?
http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/
Chances are the private sector will do it get all the messy work out of the way then the like of Nasa and all other government bodies will want to step in after all the hard work is done.
A moon base is the way to go. Its a huge stepping stone and lots of resources for refining for fuel etc. This however will have to be looked at and carefully monitored as is the Arctic regions are protected to prevent massive disruption. The only difference is of course there not being any wildlife but mining could cause other issues yet unheard of
From the moon then Mars. That because of the base on the moon will be made massively easier due to hardly any gravity