OT: Linux/Java books lead upsurge in IT book sales

[asj]

Many Java programmers remind me of soothsayers - they try to see
trends in the winds and use it to their advantage. Thus, you get the
rather monotonous postings about how Java crushes all other
languages/platforms when it comes to job postings, or how this survey
and that survey purports to predict the success of Java in future.
Then there's TIOBE index, which ranks popularity based on some complex
google methodology, and which has been showing an amazing rise in
Java's popularity over the past year. My personal favorite is using
shelf space in book stores to predict the popularity of technologies,
along with the rather similar amazon.com top daily books.

So it comes as no surprise that this particular news article caught my
eye.

Is it possible to measure popularity and success indirectly in these
trying times by determining any upsurge in the sales of specific IT
books?

blog:
http://www.freeroller.net/page/kalimantan/20030915#java_soothsayers_and_book_sales

-----------------------------------------------------

source:
http://publishersweekly.reviewsnews...ticleid=CA322983&publication=publishersweekly

The economy is finally showing some signs of life again. Consumer
spending on technology is inching up. And yet, with a few exceptions,
overall sales in the computer/technology book category continue to
slump or remain flat at best, according to buyers for booksellers
across the U.S. While computer book retailers are singing the blues,
there are a few upbeat notes..... Other areas showing
signs of life include books on Sun Microsystems' Java programming
language and the Linux operating system, as well as computer security.
"

 

[Earl R. Goldman]

Many Java programmers remind me of soothsayers - they try to see
trends in the winds and use it to their advantage. Thus, you get the
rather monotonous postings about how Java crushes all other
languages/platforms when it comes to job postings, or how this survey
and that survey purports to predict the success of Java in future.
Then there's TIOBE index, which ranks popularity based on some complex
google methodology, and which has been showing an amazing rise in
Java's popularity over the past year. My personal favorite is using
shelf space in book stores to predict the popularity of technologies,
along with the rather similar amazon.com top daily books.

So it comes as no surprise that this particular news article caught my
eye.

Is it possible to measure popularity and success indirectly in these
trying times by determining any upsurge in the sales of specific IT
books?

If book sales and publishing are any indication, then .NET will be a huge
success, crushing everything in its path. C# and .NET books are flying off
the shelves in anticipation of the next Microsoft inspired tech boom.

 

[Tom Shelton]

Many Java programmers remind me of soothsayers - they try to see
trends in the winds and use it to their advantage. Thus, you get the
rather monotonous postings about how Java crushes all other
languages/platforms when it comes to job postings, or how this survey
and that survey purports to predict the success of Java in future.
Then there's TIOBE index, which ranks popularity based on some complex
google methodology, and which has been showing an amazing rise in
Java's popularity over the past year. My personal favorite is using
shelf space in book stores to predict the popularity of technologies,
along with the rather similar amazon.com top daily books.

Only commenting on the TIOBE thing - but, uh - it has not shown any such
thing for Java. It shows it as number one - but with flatline or just
above flatline growth (notice the = in the one year delta?)... In other
words, it has hardly changed... (+8.4%). In fact, looking at it C and C++
have a higher delta (C = +9.3%, C++ = +37.6%). Where as C# is currently at
#8 and has shown a +67.8% delta. Crap, C++ is going to pass Java in the
not to distant future if this keeps up (Java Rating = 45.5, C++=35.9).

Tom Shelton

P.S: I'm not particluarly impressed by the TIOBE thing...

 

[asj]

If book sales and publishing are any indication, then .NET will be a huge
success, crushing everything in its path. C# and .NET books are flying off
the shelves in anticipation of the next Microsoft inspired tech boom.

you need to escape from the microsoft generated hype.

here's a look at amazon.com's top programming books currently...notice
there were only 2 microsoft books that placed in the top 25 (#18,#23),
while Java placed in #4,#12,#21...the top book was a c++ book, and
both PHP and Perl did very well.

http://www.freeroller.net/page/kalimantan/20030916#java_books_make_strong_showing

Inspired by the last entry, and just for the heck of it, I visited
amazon.com's Top 25 programming books for this early morning of
September 16, 2003....and found some surprising results!

To preserve the results, I copied the relevant page here:
http://www.blueboard.com/phone/amazon.htm

First, Java made a very strong showing on the list. "Java How to
Program" by Deitel was in 4th place; the Sun Certified Study Guide was
#12; and Core Java 2: Part 1, was #21.

Secondly, some non-Java languages like PHP and Perl made very strong
showings, with Learning Perl at #9, and Programming Perl 3rd edition
at #15!

Thirdly, no Microsoft landed in the top 15. A VisualBasic.NET book was
at #18, and an MCSD book was at #23.

Fourth, C and C++ are not in any danger of replacement by C#....the #1
book was a C++ programming book!

So, does this mean Carlos Perez' musings that Wrox was sunk by an
overabundance of .NET books is true? LOL.

 

[asj]

thing for Java. It shows it as number one - but with flatline or just
above flatline growth (notice the = in the one year delta?)... In other
words, it has hardly changed... (+8.4%). In fact, looking at it C and C++
have a higher delta (C = +9.3%, C++ = +37.6%). Where as C# is currently at
#8 and has shown a +67.8% delta. Crap, C++ is going to pass Java in the
not to distant future if this keeps up (Java Rating = 45.5, C++=35.9).

yeah, we've had this conversation before i think....

fact is, C# has flatlined for all practical purposes...why? because
its 64% growth is not exactly admirable when viewed from the fact it
is starting out at such a low base (look at the graph below, not the
table). for example, the ABSOLUTE change in java is much larger than
any abosolute change in c#. it's like saying thailand's economy grew
by 40% versus the USA's 3%...but thailand's economy is 20 times
smaller than the USA.

with regards to c++,c, yep, those are still the languages to beat
(even though they lag java in hype and in this study)...notice my
other post where a c++ book is #1 in amazon.com (java is #4, vb.net is
#18, perl is #9)...

with regards to java, if you look at the graph below that page (which
shows growth over years), java has sustained a fairly robust growth
year end on year end, although with much larger fluctuations than
c++/c....

 

[Phil Earnhardt]

you need to escape from the microsoft generated hype.

here's a look at amazon.com's top programming books currently...notice
there were only 2 microsoft books that placed in the top 25 (#18,#23),
while Java placed in #4,#12,#21...the top book was a c++ book, and
both PHP and Perl did very well.

http://www.freeroller.net/page/kalimantan/20030916#java_books_make_strong_showing

As an aside, I wish you would wait a few [mythical-man] weeks and
re-run this and announce your results again. There are some titles in
the top-25 that would only be there if they were on the required
reading list for freshmen computer courses.

I am still amazed that the K&R Book is preferred over "C: A Reference
Manual". If you need a reference book on C on your shelves, the
Reference Manual is vastly superior. Much more data. Much better
organized data.

....but one of them is a "textbook" and the other isn't. Oh, well.

--phil

 

[Guinness Mann]

I am still amazed that the K&R Book is preferred over "C: A Reference
Manual". If you need a reference book on C on your shelves, the
Reference Manual is vastly superior. Much more data. Much better
organized data.

You need both. K&R is a user manual. Harbison & Steele is a reference
manual. Each serves a different need.

-- Rick

 

[Guinness Mann]

You need both. K&R is a user manual. Harbison & Steele is a reference
manual. Each serves a different need.

(quoting myself)

H&S tells you what you *can* do. K&R tells you what you *should* do.

-- Rick

 

[Roedy Green]

with regards to c++,c, yep, those are still the languages to beat
(even though they lag java in hype and in this study)...notice my
other post where a c++ book is #1 in amazon.com (java is #4, vb.net is
#18, perl is #9)...

You have two kinds of book sale, people buying books to help them get
their jobs done, and people buying books to find out what the hoopla
is all about over something new.

Using books as your criteria for prognostication overestimates the
importance of anything new.

Having that surge of books certainly helps a new technology gain a
foothold, but it does not guarantee it.

From the author's point of view, failed technologies are better. They
make room for new books.

 

[Jules Dubois]

C# and .NET books are flying off
the shelves in anticipation of the next Microsoft inspired tech boom.

You mean: another Microsoft inspired conviction for illegal maintenance of
a monopoly.