Commodity processors: coming soon?

[tony]

You know that Walmart doesn't actually make anything, right?

Of course. But they have the bucks to solicit someone to make something
special for them.

Tony

 

[tony]

nobody
Producing computer = labour cost,

So maybe miniaturization and factory automation can solve that problem.

no matter the quality(Chinese "quality")/speed/price of said computer.
Cheaper computer = smaller margin.

The old saying is "we lose money on every unit we sell, but we make it
up on volume!"

Tony

 

[Tony Hill]

Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

Walmart doesn't make ANYTHING, let alone complex things like
processors. They are strictly a retailer, all production is handled
by 3rd parties. Walmart will be first on the bandwagon to SELL
dirt-cheap stuff (they already do sell super-cheap computers), but
they certainly aren't going to make the damn thing!

 

[tony]

Walmart doesn't make ANYTHING, let alone complex things like
processors. They are strictly a retailer, all production is handled
by 3rd parties. Walmart will be first on the bandwagon to SELL
dirt-cheap stuff (they already do sell super-cheap computers), but
they certainly aren't going to make the damn thing!

"Duh". But they can bring something like that to fruition (whereas the chip vendors
have incentive NOT to).

Tony

 

[Tony Hill]

Of course. But they have the bucks to solicit someone to make something
special for them.

Walmart's forays into the super-cheap computer haven't been overly
successful. They used to sell sub-$200 computers; they don't anymore.
Even in developing markets the sub-$200 computer market hasn't really
taken off like some people expected.

 

[tony]

Walmart's forays into the super-cheap computer haven't been overly
successful. They used to sell sub-$200 computers; they don't anymore.
Even in developing markets the sub-$200 computer market hasn't really
taken off like some people expected.

Someone will do it eventually. Keeping an industry alive artificially can only
go on for so long. Perhaps it's easier these days because the engineering
and entrepreneurial talent, therefor the competitive threat, isn't out there
(too many MBA-types running the show on politics rather than people of
substance).

Tony

 

[Keith]

Someone will do it eventually. Keeping an industry alive artificially can only
go on for so long.

Really? Who? You kinda gotta have a fab to make this stuff. High-end
fabs are cheaper per transistor. You figure out the economics. Hint:
the road to your "richs" is littered with bodies. I think it's time to
put *your* money where your mouth is.

Perhaps it's easier these days because the engineering
and entrepreneurial talent, therefor the competitive threat, isn't out there
(too many MBA-types running the show on politics rather than people of
substance).

Your tinfoil is on too tight.

 

[Del Cecchi]

Really? Who? You kinda gotta have a fab to make this stuff. High-end
fabs are cheaper per transistor. You figure out the economics. Hint:
the road to your "richs" is littered with bodies. I think it's time to
put *your* money where your mouth is.


Your tinfoil is on too tight.

Saw an ad in the paper today for a Dell for 249 dollars, "low as 8
dollars a month" including a 17 inch crt monitor.

 

[George Macdonald]

Saw an ad in the paper today for a Dell for 249 dollars, "low as 8
dollars a month" including a 17 inch crt monitor.

So is Dell still managing to lose payment cheques and then turn its
customers over to a collection agency?

 

[tony]

I should have said "MBA-only-types" (who regularly just play "lotto ticket" with
the system).

Saw an ad in the paper today for a Dell for 249 dollars, "low as 8 dollars a month" including a 17 inch crt monitor.

Those are leftovers though right? Just what's left in the channels? If so, that
isn't the same as creating a NEW product with a low price point (obviously
last year's model cars still on the lot are going to be cheaper).

Tony

 

[JohnT]

Really? Who? You kinda gotta have a fab to make this stuff.
High-end fabs are cheaper per transistor. You figure out the
economics. Hint: the road to your "richs" is littered with bodies. I
think it's time to put *your* money where your mouth is.

Nvidia don't have a fab, nor do ATI, nor Broadcom.

 

[Keith]

Nvidia don't have a fab, nor do ATI, nor Broadcom.

How many logic designers does Walmart have? "Real men have fabs."

Sheesh, another "tony" heard from.

 

[JohnT]

How many logic designers does Walmart have? "Real men have fabs."

Sheesh, another "tony" heard from.

I don't dispute your argument that Walmart won't be making processors
anytime soon. But it's not because they don't have a fab. And quoting
Jerry Sanders doesn't change that, especially as AMD have stated they
will use Chartered as a foundry. Fabless semiconductor vendors are doing
rather well at the moment, and having left Intel 5 years ago to join
one, I am rather sensitive to the idea that you need to own a fab to
make high end chips.

 

[Del Cecchi]

I should have said "MBA-only-types" (who regularly just play "lotto
ticket" with
the system).


Those are leftovers though right? Just what's left in the channels? If
so, that
isn't the same as creating a NEW product with a low price point
(obviously
last year's model cars still on the lot are going to be cheaper).

Tony

It was a dell ad. Didn't give a model year. Had a P4 I think.

It is brand new. They have been advertising a system at 299 for at least
6 months.

del

 

[tony]

It was a dell ad. Didn't give a model year. Had a P4 I think.

It is brand new. They have been advertising a system at 299 for at least 6 months.

But is it just assembled from leftovers? Either Dell old stock or stuff that didn't
sell when it was current? I imagine Dell does JIT but maybe they carry _some_
stock. So the question is not whether it is "new", but is it "current". That is, if
it's based upon Intel's 845 chipset, is that still being produced by Intel? What
is the guarantee of future availability? 1 year? 2? less? Is it obsolete already?
A "Tiger Direct Closeout" product?

Tony

 

[Del Cecchi]

But is it just assembled from leftovers? Either Dell old stock or stuff
that didn't
sell when it was current? I imagine Dell does JIT but maybe they carry
_some_
stock. So the question is not whether it is "new", but is it
"current". That is, if
it's based upon Intel's 845 chipset, is that still being produced by
Intel? What
is the guarantee of future availability? 1 year? 2? less? Is it
obsolete already?
A "Tiger Direct Closeout" product?

Tony

Direct from the Dell ad in "usa weekend" in today's minneapolis
newspaper. Dimension B110 Entry level desktop.
Intel Celeron D 325 (2.53 GHz)
XP Home
256 MB shared DDR
80 GB drive
17 inch E773 monitor (110 extra for 15 inch flat panel)
CD Rom
90 day warranty.
e value code 07282-D50202H

for another 180 bucks you get the 15 inch flat panel, 512 MB,
CDburner/dvd drive, 1 year warranty.

del

 

[tony]

Direct from the Dell ad in "usa weekend" in today's minneapolis newspaper. Dimension B110 Entry level desktop.
Intel Celeron D 325 (2.53 GHz)
XP Home
256 MB shared DDR
80 GB drive
17 inch E773 monitor (110 extra for 15 inch flat panel)
CD Rom
90 day warranty.
e value code 07282-D50202H

for another 180 bucks you get the 15 inch flat panel, 512 MB, CDburner/dvd drive, 1 year warranty.

Still not a commodity though. DVR's (not just players) were thousands of
dollars just a few years ago. Today one can be had for $69. Staying
with the paradigm of what a PC is today won't produce the "commodity".
That would require a paradigm shift (out of the box thinking, but it's not
anything too mind-boggling either). But I don't think the PeeCee industry
can do it because that $69 thing is fundamentally (but not necessarilly
operationally) different than the above $249 thing.

Tony

 

[Keith]

I don't dispute your argument that Walmart won't be making processors
anytime soon. But it's not because they don't have a fab. And quoting
Jerry Sanders doesn't change that, ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ T. J. Rodgers
especially as AMD have stated they will use Chartered as a foundry.

....as reserve/peaking capacity. It's always nice to have some
contractors to take up slack when the inevitable fit hits the shan.

Fabless semiconductor vendors are doing rather well at the moment,
and having left Intel 5 years ago to join one, I am rather sensitive
to the idea that you need to own a fab to make high end chips.

Not carrying a fab around has its benefits, particularly for a poor
startup, but a fab is needed to lead (control your destiny), rather
than follow. I don't see too many leading-edge processors being
done by fabless companies. I guess it all depends on your
definition of "high end chips".