Commodity processors: coming soon?

[tony]

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony

 

[daytripper]

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony

Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.

Next question.

 

[Keith]

Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.

Next question.

LOL! I wuz going to sell him a sample from my M1 collection. ...I think
I still have one around somewhere. ...or maybe an 80C51FC (hey, they were
$250 each when I bought 'em). ;-)

 

[tony]

Heck, for $10 and free shipping you can get a new 500mhz Celeron *today*, and
with a one year warranty, no less.

That's only until the stock runs out I imagine. The question I was asking was for high
volume commercial production.

Tony

 

[Keith]

That's only until the stock runs out I imagine. The question I was asking was for high
volume commercial production.

Then, no. The pins cost more than that.

 

[Del Cecchi]

That's only until the stock runs out I imagine. The question I was asking was for high
volume commercial production.

Tony

"Yes, I think it can be easily done..." r. zimmerman

But it would have to be intel or one of their cross licensee's. Pick
your favorite old time vintage 180 nm part and build something similar
in 90 nm, being sure to get the pins down so the substrate is also
cheap. Solder directly to board to save socket cost.

The trick is finding someone to put up the millions of dollars of nre to
get the cost of the part down.

 

[Robert Redelmeier]

(e-mail address removed) says...

Then, no. The pins cost more than that.

Why do you say that? 10c/pin? The 486 has 168 pins, and I'm
fairly certain could be produced for under $10. Use modern tech
and not bleeding-edge process, it should be clockable around 1 GHz.
I don't even think that much would be needed with decent software.

It wouldn't even come close to VIA C3, but with enough memory
it'd be enough to run a web browser appliance. A web toaster.
Buy at WalMart. Plug into cable & TV (svideo). IR kbd/trakball
& go. Calls into the mfr website for flash EEPROM updates.

After all, some of these 200 MHz ARM cellphones have browsers!

-- Robert

 

[Del Cecchi]

Why do you say that? 10c/pin? The 486 has 168 pins, and I'm
fairly certain could be produced for under $10. Use modern tech
and not bleeding-edge process, it should be clockable around 1 GHz.
I don't even think that much would be needed with decent software.

It wouldn't even come close to VIA C3, but with enough memory
it'd be enough to run a web browser appliance. A web toaster.
Buy at WalMart. Plug into cable & TV (svideo). IR kbd/trakball
& go. Calls into the mfr website for flash EEPROM updates.

After all, some of these 200 MHz ARM cellphones have browsers!

-- Robert

Don't need pins. Put on solder bumps and solder down. Are you building
a "thin client" or a PC? And what else do you need? It would surprise
me if the parts cost of one of those Dell 299 PC boxes is over 100
bucks, but maybe that isn't what you want. What is the parts cost of a
webtv box? Isn't that what you are advocating?

 

[Jim Prescott]

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably
not even VIA) to produce a $10 or $20 processor?

The $100 laptop people ( http://www.laptop.org/ ) like the the
AMD Geode GX500. At least in significant volume it must be in
that pricing ballpark.

 

[Robert Redelmeier]

Don't need pins. Put on solder bumps and solder down.

BGA is only marginally cheaper than pins. You still have to
connect chip pads with something bigger. Flip chip helps.

Are you building a "thin client" or a PC?

Appliance PCs are more like smart clients. They're a full PC
as far as external machines are concerned. No troublesome
extra support required. No forced portals or render farms.
But with very limited local functionality.

It would surprise me if the parts cost of one of those
Dell 299 PC boxes is over 100 bucks,

AFIAK, MS-WinXP costs Dell ~$80, support ???. Price the parts out,
I don't think you can build for less than $150. Look at XBox1.

These toasters could be build around $100, or $50 in quantity:
No drives. Ultra cheap CPU (maybe not x86), 128 MB RAM (maybe
less), 64 MB flash video & sound, built in DOCSIS or DSL modem.
IR kbd/tb. Sealed box. Maybe with USB for expansion/drives.

What is the parts cost of a webtv box?
Isn't that what you are advocating?

I don't think so. AFAIK, webTV is reliant on WebTV render servers.
You're tied to them, and I don't think peope like being tied.
For those that do, AOL could give away (bundle) a customized box.

Svideo renders 640x480 surprisingly well even on NTSC TVs.
The real problem is that people may not want to browse/email in
a group.

-- Robert

 

[Scott Alfter]

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Svideo renders 640x480 surprisingly well even on NTSC TVs.
The real problem is that people may not want to browse/email in
a group.

There's a fair chance that the people who'd buy a cheap web/mail box
wouldn't have a TV that supports S-video input. You'd want to design it to
be legible over a composite-video connection (it can be done...TiVo is a
fairly good example here).

_/_
/ v \ Scott Alfter (remove the obvious to send mail)
(IIGS( http://alfter.us/ Top-posting!
\_^_/ rm -rf /bin/laden >What's the most annoying thing on Usenet?

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[tony]

"Yes, I think it can be easily done..." r. zimmerman

But it would have to be intel or one of their cross licensee's. Pick your favorite old time vintage 180 nm part and build
something similar in 90 nm, being sure to get the pins down so the substrate is also cheap. Solder directly to board to
save socket cost.

That was going to be my next question: how much would a soldered-on
processor reduce the cost of a motherboard? It seems to me, in these
days where processor speed is "irrelevant", that the socket is an
unnecessary expense. I'd expect the option for selection of processor
speeds to soon disappear from the purchasing process too.

Tony

 

[Keith]

That was going to be my next question: how much would a soldered-on
processor reduce the cost of a motherboard? It seems to me, in these
days where processor speed is "irrelevant", that the socket is an
unnecessary expense. I'd expect the option for selection of processor
speeds to soon disappear from the purchasing process too.

A soldered-on processor screws up the whole x86 market, at least
general-purpose x86 market (may work for embedded markets like
TiVo-like thingys). We've already noted that motherboard makers
make little or no money. They can't afford to carry the processor
inventory, when their margins are already near zero. Also,
processors are speed sorted allowing higher yield. Limiting speed
sorts would reduce yield and drive up costs (precisely what you're
trying to avoid). Soldering the processor onto the motherboard
forces the decision to supply these sorts up the manufacturing
chain from the box builder to the motherboard maker, where there is
already no money. Think of the number of hands that have to
"carry" this extra cost. What if they guess wrong?

Soldered-on processors work in a vertical business (e.g. Apple),
but not in the far more horizontal PC business.

 

[hackbox.info]

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably
not even VIA) to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet
appliance" machine (from Walmart?) could use one of those. Can't someone
go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and make the cheap part?

its ARM9 price range, there are plenty of those, add cheap graphical
processor, ram, flash .. and you end up with WEBTV box, just like
http://mirror.toc2rta.com/index.php/Main_Page
or NetGem NetBOX (mine is running Debian)
or Tivo
or ..
people (people as your mom) do not want those, end of story.

 

[nobody]

Is it possible for some company (not Intel or AMD of course, probably not even VIA)
to produce a $10 or $20 processor? The "internet appliance" machine (from Walmart?)
could use one of those. Can't someone go back to old technology (not 45nm!) and
make the cheap part?

Tony

Why bother? P3-class boxes are getting dumped and can be picked for
free these days. Ditto 15" and even 17" monitors (CRT, not LCD of
course). For Web/Email/Office these have plenty of power. And no
Walmart, no cheapest Chinese manufacturer can beat the price of
*free*.

NNN

 

[tony]

Why bother? P3-class boxes are getting dumped and can be picked for
free these days. Ditto 15" and even 17" monitors (CRT, not LCD of
course). For Web/Email/Office these have plenty of power. And no
Walmart, no cheapest Chinese manufacturer can beat the price of
*free*.

Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

Tony

 

[Keith]

Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

Yeah, Walmart has some bleeding-edge fabs and an army of processor
developers just waiting for something to do. Sheesh! ...you are a maroon!

 

[Del Cecchi]

BGA is only marginally cheaper than pins. You still have to
connect chip pads with something bigger. Flip chip helps.

You could do flip chip on board, or some organic substrate.

Appliance PCs are more like smart clients. They're a full PC
as far as external machines are concerned. No troublesome
extra support required. No forced portals or render farms.
But with very limited local functionality.


AFIAK, MS-WinXP costs Dell ~$80, support ???. Price the parts out,
I don't think you can build for less than $150. Look at XBox1.

I wasn't counting XP as a "part", I was thinking hardware. We all know
that the cost of xp is next to nothing. The price is different.

 

[hackbox.info]

Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

nobody
Producing computer = labour cost, no matter the quality(Chinese
"quality")/speed/price of said computer.
Cheaper computer = smaller margin. It's suicide, only DELL does that with
almost free Celerons and XP.

 

[Neil Maxwell]

Again, the "used" or "leftover" scenario was not the question asked. The question
was about the potential of producing commodity processors in commodity PeeCees
that are more than adequate computing devices (perhaps for certain, even mainstream
scenarios). $2k-$3k media PCs is a failed concept if you ask me. "Better" and yet
"cheaper" wins! Who will do it? (My guess is Walmart!)

You know that Walmart doesn't actually make anything, right? They
sell stuff that other people make for them under contract, and make a
profit in the process.

You might want to run some numbers on the cost of making CPUs (fab
costs, capitol equipment, consumables, labor, etc) - estimates of
these numbers are readily available on the 'net.

Then look at what it would take to pay the ongoing costs and
depreciation with the profit margins on a $20 CPU, and estimate how
many you'd have to sell just to break even. I don't think you'd have
a business plan that would attract much venture capital.