You should always have your data backed up. First, the hardware might fail,
specifically your hard drive, no backup, no data, years of work gone.
The update should go without incident but it is a major update and even
minor updates can cause the system to crash for all kinds of reasons,
problem hardware, problem applications, out of date drivers for hardware,
maybe an old application installed on your system. You should also make
sure your antivirus application is up to date and run a scan of your system
and check for malware, download, install and run Ad Aware:
www.lavasoftusa.com before installing the update. Even having everything up
to date, something you should check before installing, things can go
wrong...you don't plan to have an auto accident but they can happen, you
don't plan to have a flat tire or worse, a blow out, but you carry a spare.
You're talking about updating the operating environment of your system,
which only increases the need for data backup, something you should be doing
whenever you use your system anyway.