On Fri, 04 May 2007 10:51:34 -0500, DanS
Good point actually, if someone is totally computer dumb and has to bring
in an 'outsider' to fix their Windows box, there's essentially no
difference bringing in someone else to fix their *Nix box.
True. It's like the apps and device drivers; where to find a good,
friendly, available Linux tech?
Windows will prolly enjoy driver and hardware support, and MS will
work hard to keep software devs on board too, but techs... may be a
different story. At some point, if consumer resentment builds up,
some techs may ride on both skis or jump over completely. Techs are
users too, and can get even more fed up than users!
MS keeps big OEMs on-side in various ways, but smaller PC builders
could get fed up and move on. They're trapped by their skill set,
i.e. the investment they've made in what they've been working with and
learning how to fix, just as disgruntled users here are trapped by the
applications they've chosen that are available only on Windows.
One wild card is the old "Net PC" model, which is being re-invented
yet again as Web 2.0 apps, e.g. as offered by Google. Personally, the
idea of having my data sitting on someone else's box is pretty scary,
but I can see users who get malware'd all the time might actually feel
safer that way. Then they could use any OS that "speaks web", pretty
much the Java dream but even friendlier to the old-school vendors who
long to do the big-iron multi-user thing again.
The other wild card is the role of advertising in IT. For many users,
Windows may be the only software or content they pay for; everything
else is free, or "free", so who's paying the piper? Advertising.
One watches MS's present ethics in familiar territory as a pointer to
how they may arrive at a green-fields environment like Web 2.0 apps or
advertising-funded services. If the approach they take is
intolerable, and the new fields are too pervasive to ignore, then two
things happen. One, the dependency on the OS may be less, as other
OSs can do the new stuff too. The other is that we may be driven to
change platforms, even if the other platforms aren't as slick.
Final wild card; at any point, the game could tilt, e.g. if Apple
re-positioned themselves as a value-added, hardware-independent Linux
with best-of-breed commercial support. I doubt if they have the guts
to grasp the nettle, though; their own pre-existing pattern of greed
will prolly lead them to DRM their OS so that only runs on their
hardware, even as their hardware becomes generic "Intel".
So Linux will count on MS blowing the platform through unacceptable
politics, and MS will count on Apple being too timid to commit to the
fray. Well, betting on stupidity has always been good odds ;-)
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Proverbs Unscrolled #37
"Build it and they will come and break it"