Smartphone sales rocket versus PDAs - End of the PDAs?

[asj]

Interesting read on the skyrocketing growth of smartphones versus PDAs.
It has been the contention of some that the use of handhelds will soon
be eclipsed by the rise of smartphones running java, symbian, linux,
palm, brew etc. This news article certainly shows signs that smartphones
are several fold more popular than PDAs. In terms of java, this would be
a great trend, since j2me runs (or is capable of running) on all the
major smartphone OS.

some quotes:

- Among PDA providers, Palm and Sony showed significant year-on-year
growth of 45 per cent and 64 per cent, respectively. HP's shipments grew
too, by two per cent, but not enough to prevent its market share
tumbling from 36% to 25%.

- Among smartphone vendors, Nokia unsurprisingly took the lion's share
of the market - 78 per cent of it. Indeed, Nokia shipped more
smartphones during Q2 2003 than the PDA guys combined. The number two,
Sony Ericsson, only accounted for 15 per cent of shipments, but its
growth was almost four times that of its rival.

- Shipments of PDAs with and without wireless communications - what
Canalys terms 'data-centric devices' - jumped 51 per cent during the
second quarter to 2003, from 415,350 units in Q2 2002 to 627,520. By
contrast, shipments of smartphones 'voice-centric' handhelds - rocketed
1156 per cent during the same timeframe, from 85,050 devices to
1,068,430.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/68/31880.html

 

[asj]

I think a more useful way of considering this than as a rivalry is as a
technology merger, much like the consolidation of the personal computer
market to a few major players; soon all surviving PDAs will be voice
capable and (by implication) wireless capable, and (almost all) cell
phones will be data capable. Only the very bottom of the line
remnant-bin cell phones will remain "voice only", tools for children and
the moderately poor or data technology averse.

The interesting things then from the Java standpoint will be how quickly
Java penetrates the "voice capable PDA" market, and whether it rides in
on the coat-tails of a small platform Linux or under the umbrella of the
existing ideosyncratic PDA operating systems; however flawed "Write Once
Run Anywhere" may be modulo vastly differing handheld OS capabilities,
Java is still miles ahead of whatever is in second place as far as
portability of existing applications goes.

Moreover, the existence of Java's dominant market share in the handheld
marketplace is going to drive the handheld vendors to assure that Write
Once Run Anywhere _is_ supported by their platforms, from sheer need to
survive. Market realities assure that the efforts toward improved fit
are by no means required to be all on the Java language design side.

xanthian.

good point....in one sense it is a competition though, because the
composition of the companies making up each side is not exactly
equivalent. on the smartphone side, nokia is the leader by far, along
with motorola and all the other cellphone makers. on the handheld side,
you have the Palm OS (Sony,Palm), Linux, and Windows CE (HP, etc).

 

[username]

- Shipments of PDAs with and without wireless communications - what

Canalys terms 'data-centric devices' - jumped 51 per cent during the
second quarter to 2003, from 415,350 units in Q2 2002 to 627,520.

that does not sound like the end of PDA's to me....

 

[asj]

"etc." LOL. It's called Pocket PC and the article mentions it
several times. Funny that you didn't. Two companies went from
nothing to 13% market share using Pocket PC phones. Haven't you said
that Pocket PC Smartphones were dead?

(1) 13% marketshare? LOL. one, medion, went to 8% marketshare in PDAs by
simply eating away at HP's falling sales (which sells windows PDAs also,
and fell from 36% to 25%!!!!!!)...second, orange is at 5% in the PHONE
market, but its smartphone was actually considered a flop. two different
markets dude....you can't do the math that way and come up with 13%.

i would say the biggest news is how the Palm OS (Sony and Palm, which
grew by whopping 45% and 65% respectively) is beating the sh*t out of
windows on handhelds. this is VERY good news for java, since Palm just
announced it would be shipping java's J2ME by default ON ALL PALM
TUNGSTEN devices....this will allow palm to penetrate the corporate
market more deeply, and java to be used extensively on enterprise
handhelds.

(2) where did i ever say windows smartphones would die? i said it was a
piece of cr#p so far (and many reveiwers agreed).

 

[=?iso-8859-15?Q?=22Dan_Michael_O._Hegg=F8=22?=]

Interesting read on the skyrocketing growth of smartphones versus PDAs.
It has been the contention of some that the use of handhelds will soon
be eclipsed by the rise of smartphones running java, symbian, linux,
palm, brew etc. This news article certainly shows signs that smartphones
are several fold more popular than PDAs. In terms of java, this would be
a great trend, since j2me runs (or is capable of running) on all the
major smartphone OS.

I wouldn't buy a phone with a 320*320 display, and I wouldn't buy a PDA
with a 80*120 display... so I think I will keep both my phone and my PDA. A
phone can become as powerful as a PDA, but the display size will always be
a problem... Until they get a built-in micro-projector or some other way to
compensate for this.

 

[Thurman]

I wouldn't buy a phone with a 320*320 display, and I wouldn't buy a PDA
with a 80*120 display... so I think I will keep both my phone and my
PDA. A phone can become as powerful as a PDA, but the display size will
always be a problem... Until they get a built-in micro-projector or some
other way to compensate for this.

This month two companies in the US announced flexible non
color displays for sale and >delivery<.

A couple of the large retailers have participated in trials
of flexible 'banners' that display changing text.

It's not a large stretch to imagine a PPC with a hinged
cover that opens like a clamshell to display a 640x480 display.

 

[asj]

that does not sound like the end of PDA's to me....

on the other hand: " By contrast, shipments of smartphones
'voice-centric' handhelds - rocketed 1156 per cent during the same
timeframe, from 85,050 devices to 1,068,430."

and this discrepancy will continue to accelerate as cellphone vendors
continue to ratchet up the number of smartphones....

the signs of a trend are all there. even in the corporate arena,
smartphones are starting to be used in areas previously restricted to
handheld devices like PDAs.

-----------------------------------------------------

Farewell to handhelds - GPS, Java, and push-to-talk give smart phones a
clear edge over PDAs

General Motors announced last week that it will partner with wireless
carrier Nextel to use Nextel’s Motorola cell phones with data
capabilities to market a field-force management application to its
commercial truck fleet customers. The announcement casts a shadow over
the future of handheld devices in the business marketplace. By selecting
a cellular phone, GM in essence said no to Palm, HP, and Microsoft.

IT departments should consider the reasoning behind GM’s decision before
recommending a handheld solution of their own. GM representatives told
me they believe the cell phone is nonthreatening, a piece of hardware
most people are comfortable using.

But in addition to push-to-talk, the Nextel Motorola phones have a JVM
(Java Virtual Machine) that runs J2ME (Java 2 Platform Micro Edition)
applications, which can be downloaded and upgraded over the wireless
network. In many respects, leveraging Java on the client with J2EE app
servers on the back end makes handsets equal in capability to handhelds.
In fact, handsets are already encroaching on traditional handheld
markets. For example, an application exists for remote IT systems
management called IC2 from Inciscent. Engineers use PermitWorks to look
up permit contracts in construction.

Ernie Cormeir, vice president of business solutions at Nextel in Reston,
Va., tells me that there are Java clients for PeopleSoft and that Siebel
CRM apps run over Nextel’s iDEN wireless network.

The combination of GPS, Java, push-to-talk, and ease of use makes it
hard not to consider a handset over a handheld.

http://www.blueboard.com/j2me/

------------------------------------------------------------

 

[asj]

I wouldn't buy a phone with a 320*320 display, and I wouldn't buy a PDA
with a 80*120 display... so I think I will keep both my phone and my PDA. A
phone can become as powerful as a PDA, but the display size will always be
a problem... Until they get a built-in micro-projector or some other way to
compensate for this.

--

i think some of the smartphone display sizes are even as large as the
current handheld display sizes. i would not think this to be a
problem...we are coming to a time when the convergence of PDAs and
handsets is happening, and so far, the PDA makers seem to be at the
losing end (whether this will remain so, who knows?)

 

[Tim Tyler]

: i think some of the smartphone display sizes are even as large as the
: current handheld display sizes. i would not think this to be a
: problem...we are coming to a time when the convergence of PDAs and
: handsets is happening, and so far, the PDA makers seem to be at the
: losing end (whether this will remain so, who knows?)

Frankly, I don't see it.

People will still want to access their schedule when on the phone ;-)

 

[username]

on the other hand: " By contrast, shipments of smartphones
'voice-centric' handhelds - rocketed 1156 per cent during the same
timeframe, from 85,050 devices to 1,068,430."

why compare smartphones to pda's? why is this 1156% relevant to the PDA
market? For me, PDA's and smartphone do not compete for the same market,
they have very clearly different kind of uses etc

and this discrepancy will continue to accelerate as cellphone vendors
continue to ratchet up the number of smartphones....

explain 'discepancy'.

the signs of a trend are all there. even in the corporate arena,
smartphones are starting to be used in areas previously restricted to
handheld devices like PDAs.

Perhaps, we'll see, although I do not really care. I am more interested in
providing functionality to my users than in the tools to do it.

 

[asj]

why compare smartphones to pda's? why is this 1156% relevant to the PDA
market? For me, PDA's and smartphone do not compete for the same market,
they have very clearly different kind of uses etc

as i noted in another post, the functionality of smartphones from nokia,
etc are starting to approach that of PDAs, thus paving the way for a
situation where all anyone might need is a highly capable
smartphone...however, the difference is that smartphones are growing
much faster than PDAS, AND it seems most people feel more comfortable
interacting with a familiar device such as a cellphone rather than a
handheld (although, honestly, some of the new smartphones look almost
like traditional PDAs).

explain 'discepancy'.

difference between handhelds sold versus smartphones and non-basic
phones.

Perhaps, we'll see, although I do not really care. I am more interested in
providing functionality to my users than in the tools to do it.

exactly! and if smartphones will give the same functionality as
traditional PDAs (as they are rapidly becoming), AND become more
entrenched in corporations (as they may be doing), AND are more widely
used (as they are), then what use are the traditional PDAs?

 

[username]

as i noted in another post,

sorry, I do not read all your posts.

difference between handhelds sold versus smartphones and non-basic
phones.

you are mistaking "differences" with "discrepancies". By using "
discrepancies" use suggest that the two are comparable, which they are not.

exactly! and if smartphones will give the same functionality as
traditional PDAs (as they are rapidly becoming), AND become more
entrenched in corporations (as they may be doing), AND are more widely
used (as they are), then what use are the traditional PDAs?

well, the PDA community is growing rapidly (51%!!) and the majority of the
software for handhelds is available for PDA's (especially pocketpc and win
ce), they are cheap, it is easy to develop/port windows software to the PDA
platform etc etc etc.

note:if they are becoming so similar, why not call smartphones just PDA's?
you are saying that they are converging...
another note: tv's are more widely uses as traditional PDA's, so you think
PDA's will be replaced by tv's?

 

[John W. Kennedy]

why compare smartphones to pda's? why is this 1156% relevant to the PDA
market? For me, PDA's and smartphone do not compete for the same market,
they have very clearly different kind of uses etc

Then why the Tungsten W? And why the Treo series?

--
John W. Kennedy
"Give up vows and dogmas, and fixed things, and you may grow like
That. ...you may come to think a blow bad, because it hurts, and not
because it humiliates. You may come to think murder wrong, because
it is violent, and not because it is unjust."
-- G. K. Chesterton. "The Ball and the Cross"

 

[asj]

well, the PDA community is growing rapidly (51%!!) and the majority of the
software for handhelds is available for PDA's (especially pocketpc and win
ce), they are cheap, it is easy to develop/port windows software to the PDA
platform etc etc etc.

sorry, but the vast majority of handheld software (90%+, last i checked
last year) is actually for the Palm OS, not windows handhelds.

note:if they are becoming so similar, why not call smartphones just PDA's?
you are saying that they are converging...
another note: tv's are more widely uses as traditional PDA's, so you think
PDA's will be replaced by tv's?

sure, we can call smartphones PDAs, it's all semantics...but the big
difference is that the makers of handhelds are NOT the same as the
makers of smartphones. when or if the two markets become one, then the
VAST majority of PDA/smartphone devices will be running Symbian/Linux
OS, not Palm OS (since the growth of smartphones is much faster than
handheld growth).

 

[username]

Then why the Tungsten W? And why the Treo series?

I have no idea. But I think that the tungsten is not responsible for the
1156% growth!

 

[username]

sorry, but the vast majority of handheld software (90%+, last i checked
last year)

check again....

 

[asj]

check again....

uh, yep:
http://www.allnetdevices.com/wireless/news/2002/04/11/palm_os.html

now, you show me your numbers....the overall number of Palm devices in
the market is much larger than that for windows handhelds, which
explains why there is more software for it.

Palm OS Claims Software Lion's Share
By Internetnews.com Staff

April 11, 2002

A recent study by retail market analyst NPDTechworld indicates that Palm
OS applications take the cake when it comes to the amount and type of
handheld software sold in the U.S.

Palm OS-based applications accounted for more than 97 percent of all
handheld software titles sold in 2001, naming PalmSource, Inc., a
subsidiary of Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) as the number one maker of
handheld applications.

 

[username]

uh, yep:
http://www.allnetdevices.com/wireless/news/2002/04/11/palm_os.html

you are referring to someone talking about software sold, I was talking
about number of available apps.

 

[Keld Laursen]

on the other hand: " By contrast, shipments of smartphones
'voice-centric' handhelds - rocketed 1156 per cent during the same
timeframe, from 85,050 devices to 1,068,430."

Wow! 1156%? That's a lot.

I am shipping a new product next week. My bet is that I will have a shipment
rocket a fair "lazy eight" % during the first sale alone;
from 0 to one product sold.

In order to really look at those percentages, you have to compare markets
that are equally mature.

/Keld Laursen
<TIC>

 

[Keld Laursen]

....
April 11, 2002

Bank lady: "Your credit balance is negative"
You: "Last time I checked, there were lots of money on my account!"
Bank Lady: "Check again"
You: "I just did. Last years figures say that my balance is positive"
....

You have to find newer numbers to support your claim!

/Keld Laursen