Need formula to track APR on multiple payout investment

S

StompS

I am trying to put together a simple chart. An "investor" invests in a
building project with multiple payments during construction. If the investor
puts a total of $100,000 into a project that takes one year to omplete and
receives $10,000 in return on investment his actual APR is greater than 10%
because his money wasn't all used at one time up front. How would I do this?
Thanks for the help!

Steve
 
J

joeu2004

StompS said:
I am trying to put together a simple chart. An "investor" invests in a
building project with multiple payments during construction. If the investor
puts a total of $100,000 into a project that takes one year to omplete and
receives $10,000 in return on investment his actual APR is greater than 10%
because his money wasn't all used at one time up front. How would I do this?

First, it would be more correct to call it an APY (annual percentage
yield). But annual "return on investment" (ROI) and "internal rate of
return" (IRR) are even better terms to use.

Second, if the investor received only $10,000 in return, he/she lost
about 90% instead of gaining about 10%. I presume you mean that the
investor received $110,000 in return -- $10,000 more than he/she
contributed.

Finally, you do not provide enough information to say exactly how to do
the computation. I presume that you mean that the $100,000 was
contributed in smaller portions over time,
and the $110,000 was distributed either at the end or in smaller
portions over time. These are called cash flows.

If the cash flows occurred at regular intervals or multiples of regular
intervals, you might be able to use the Excel IRR() function. For
example, if the investor contributed $50,000
initially, then $10,000, $15,000, $5,000 and $20,000 in 1, 3, 4 and 6
months later, and the investor received $110,000 12 months later, you
could compute the IRR as follows:

=(1+IRR({-50000,-10000,0,-15000,-5000,0,-20000,0,0,0,0,0,110000}))^12 -
1

Note that IRR() computes the rate per period -- in this case, monthly.
Hence the need to explicitly annualize the rate. You could also write:

=fv(IRR({-50000,-10000,0,-15000,-5000,0,-20000,0,0,0,0,0,110000}), 12,
0, -1) - 1

You could put the cash flows into a range of cells and substitute the
range for "{...}" above.

On the other hand, if the cash flows occur at irregular intervals, you
will need to use XIRR(), which always returns an annualize rate, by the
way. See the XIRR help page for instructions.
 
S

StompS

You assumed correct and gave an awesome answer! I will give it a try!!!
Thank you!
 
S

StompS

I cut and pasted this formula into a cell and it gave me a formula error at
the comma right before the "12":

=fv(IRR({-50000,-10000,0,-15000,-5000,0,-20000,0,0,0,0,0,110000}), 12,
0, -1) - 1

I can walk myself through it if I can eliminate the error....Thanks again!
 
S

StompS

Here's what I understand (and don't understand) from the formula so far:

=(1+IRR({-50000,-10000,0,-15000,-5000,0,-20000,0,0,0,0,0,110000}))^12 -
1

Definiton IRR(values,guess)
I know that the values are the contribution (negative figures) and payouts
(positive figures)
Even from the Excel Help menu I can't seem to see what the "guess" is
It appears that in the above equation there is no guess and Excel just
figures it out on it's own?
It appears that the "1+" in front of the IRR and the "^12-1" has something
to do with converting the cashflow from yearly to monthly. Why would you
take the value from the IRR function and puut it to the twelfth power?
If the investment only takes 6 months from start to finish how does that
change the "12" in the formula?

Thanks for the help AGAIN...
 
S

StompS

My data of values is B1:B18 which includes the cashoutflows and cash inflows
I believe the formula should look like this:
=(1+IRR(B11:B18))^12 -1
But am still getting a formula error...can't seem to figure it out.ail:
Also tried this to no avail...
=(1+IRR({B11:B18}))^12 -1
 
J

joeu2004

StompS said:
I cut and pasted this formula into a cell and it gave me a formula error at
the comma right before the "12":
=fv(IRR({-50000,-10000,0,-15000,-5000,0,-20000,0,0,0,0,0,110000}), 12,
0, -1) - 1

Hmm, worked just fine for me -- even when I left the line breaks,
introduced when I cut-and-pasted the above lines.
 
J

joeu2004

StompS said:
Definiton IRR(values,guess)
I know that the values are the contribution (negative figures) and payouts
(positive figures)
Even from the Excel Help menu I can't seem to see what the "guess" is
It appears that in the above equation there is no guess and Excel just
figures it out on it's own?

Not really. As the Help page explains, Excel starts with a guess of
10%. That happen to work for my example. And it seems to work a lot
of the time. But sometimes, we need to put a "guess" in ourselves.
Problem is: I cannot think of a good way to guess, especially when
there are a lot of cash flows.
It appears that the "1+" in front of the IRR and the "^12-1" has something
to do with converting the cashflow from yearly to monthly.

No, from monthly to yearly.
Why would you
take the value from the IRR function and puut it to the twelfth power?

As I demonstrated, by adding 1 before raising to the 12th power, then
subtracting 1 afterwards.
If the investment only takes 6 months from start to finish how does that
change the "12" in the formula?

Not if you want an __annual__ rate of return. You said that is what
you wanted.

The key thing to understand is: if the cash flow period is monthly,
IRR returns a __monthly__ rate of return. If you want an annual rate
of return, you would compound the monthly rate over 12 periods.
 
J

joeu2004

StompS said:
My data of values is B1:B18 which includes the cashoutflows and cash inflows

And you properly signed the cash flows so that outflow and inflows have
opposite signs. Right?
I believe the formula should look like this:
=(1+IRR(B11:B18))^12 -1
But am still getting a formula error...can't seem to figure it out.

I suspect you got bitten by Excel's poor guess (10%) -- or more to the
point, the poor Excel algorithm that cannot seem to home in on the
correct value.

(Odd that an HP 12C calculator can. Well, not so odd. The 12C is
probably choosing "outrageous" upper and lower bounds for the initial
guess in order to maximize success, and it seems to iterate a whole lot
more than the 20 times that Excel tries. Since a calculator is doing
only one such computation at a time, it is reasonable to assume that
the user is willing to wait the many seconds that it sometimes take.)

If you post the 8 cash flows, I could probably help. If you want to
try on your own, try the following initial guess:

=(sumif(B11:B18,">0")/(-sumif(B11:B18,"<0")))^(1/9)-1

That computes the simple return (sum(returns)/sum(-costs)) on a
per-period basis ("^(1/8)"). The "8" is based on the fact that B11:B18
represents 8 cash flows. The "-1" converts the growth factor (e.g,
X*1.10) to an incremental growth rate (e.g, X*0.10).

Admittedly, I have not idea if that produces a good guess. I have
tried it on occasion with varied results. I think it usually works
with real-life cash flows, but it seemingly often fails with class
assignments. I have resorted to creating a PV table and interpolating
the IRR manually. Let me know if you want to try that approach. (Not
really recommended. I just find it faster to do a brute-force approach
than to analyze the problem sufficiently to permit a methodical
approach.)
 
J

joeu2004

Errata....
No, from monthly to yearly.

That is, it is converting the rate of return, not the cash flow, from a
monthly rate to a yearly rate.
As I demonstrated, by adding 1 before raising to the 12th power, then
subtracting 1 afterwards.

That did not answer your question (which I misread), and I could
explain the "1+" and "-1" better.

As I explained elsewhere, IRR is computing a monthly rate of return, if
the cash flow periods are monthly. Ostensibly, we want to compound
this over 12 months in order to compute the equivalent annual rate.

But mathematically, it does not work if we simply take rate of return
"r" and compute r^12. Instead, we must do (1+r)^12 - 1. We gain some
insight into the reason why when we try to compound $1 over 12 months
at 10%, for example. We do not compute simply 1*1%*1%*...*1%.
Instead, we compute 1*(1+1%)*(1+1%)*...*(1+1%). That computes "future
value" of $1. But since we want just the gain, we must subtract the
initial $1 in the end.
 
S

StompS

Date Financier Cash Flow Total Cash Investment Project Value Owner's
Equity Net After Expenses Developer 1 Developer 2 Financier
11/01/2006 -$600,000 -$600,000 $784,080 $184,080 $105,672 $46,496
$46,496 $12,681
12/01/2006 -$200,000 -$800,000 $1,008,000 $208,000 $107,200 $47,168
$47,168 $12,864
01/01/2007 -$705,000 -$1,505,000
$1,260,000 -$245,000 -$371,000 -$163,240 -$163,240 -$44,520
02/01/2007 $0 -$1,505,000 $2,016,000 $511,000 $309,400 $136,136
$136,136 $37,128
03/01/2007 -$400,000 -$1,905,000 $3,276,000 $1,371,000 $1,043,400
$459,096 $459,096 $125,208
04/01/2007 -$575,000 -$2,480,000 $3,528,000 $1,048,000 $695,200
$305,888 $305,888 $83,424
05/01/2007 -$520,000 -$3,000,000 $4,032,000 $1,032,000 $628,800
$276,672 $276,672 $75,456
06/01/2007 $3,129,888 $129,888 $4,536,000 $4,665,888 $1,082,400
$476,256 $476,256 $129,888


This is my table, the 11/01/2006 cell is cell A11
I think I must be missing something simple here....
 
S

StompS

Damn, the thing didn't line up right...here is the pertinent data:

Dates Cashflow
11/1 -600000
12/1 -200000
1/1 -705000
2/1 0
3/1 -400000
4/1 -575000
5/1 -520000
6/1 3129888

What is the ROI as expressed in APY?
 
J

joeu2004

StompS said:
here is the pertinent data:
Dates Cashflow
11/1 -600000
12/1 -200000
1/1 -705000
2/1 0
3/1 -400000
4/1 -575000
5/1 -520000
6/1 3129888
What is the ROI as expressed in APY?

I see I failed to correct one of my typos in my previous posting.
Assuming the cash flow values are in B2:B9, the following does indeed
compute an adequate "guess" for IRR() in this case:

(sumif(B2:B9,">0")/(-sumif(B2:B9,"<0"))^(1/8) - 1

Thus, the following computes the monthly IRR:

IRR(B2:B9, (sumif(...)/(-sumif(...))^(1/8) - 1)

And the following annualizes the monthly IRR:

(1+IRR(...))^12 - 1

I think you should be able to fill in the gaps ("..."). Post back with
your results.
 

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