forecasting

[Guest]

Hi,

I want to forecast the potential risk of malaria by using the forecasted
values of temperature and rainfall changes. I'm not sure how to do this since
i have a temperature range of 1-5 degrees and want to see the effect this can
have.

 

[Guest]

How is your model set up?

 

[Mike Middleton]

AP -

First, "look at the data." Use XY (Scatter) charts. Plot "potential risk" on
the Y axis and temperature on the X axis. Also, plot "potential risk" on the
Y axis and rainfall changes on the X axis. If linear fits seem appropriate,
use the Regression tool to see how "potential risk" is related to
temperature and rainfall changes. If linear fits are not appropriate, post
back for more assistance (or buy my book).

- Mike
http://www.mikemiddleton.com