kenny said:
I do have a couple of decades experience in this area, but experience is NOT
an indication of connection with reality.
Insight and the ability to perceive what will happen in the future has some
connection with experience, but it is not everything.
Oh no... don't mix me up with those other fools that said those things.
I on the contrary know have a keen instinct on what will work or what will
not in technology, and I have never been proven wrong!
So prove that your previous assumptions were right!
I never ever said that mainframe computers would die, and I from even BEFORE
there were PC's knew that small cost effective computing was a part of the
future, I HAD ONE! lol... and you know what else? From the time of the first
BBS's I KNEW there would be a global network, when Bill Gates was thinking
that
the internet would just go away.
Some of us have had computers communicating well before BBSes - do you
remember what an acoustic coupler looked like?
So don't try to to push your age or your knowledge on me as if you are
superior. Because you are not.
Never claimed to be.
In fact I think the computer networks of the future will be a combination of
mainframe and PC computers.
More likely a combination of grids, supercomputers, super-minis, minis,
and what-we-will-call a PC. Pretty much old-hat in terms of prediction,
it's been referred to as a "grid of grids" for, oh, fifteen years, if
not more.
You can see my current site (it will not be online in this form for long
since I will be changing it completely), where I talk about the computer.
www.computerboom.com
Not bad - but really just basic tech, hardly anything world shaking (at
least in my world), probably more of interest to those who think that a
computer is just something you use for word-processing and email, not
those of us who've done thick Ethernet and token ring and so forth.
I stand by my claim... in the future... (I am talking not in 5 years but
more) there will be no (or very little) opensource (as we know it now).
Okay, you're begging the question here - what _change_ do you see? And
I mean in some detail, not just "It goes away".
I see an increase in the co-operative development model. Primarily, of
course, because I have already seen an increase in the co-operative
development model over the last couple of decades.
The increase of available computing power, combined with the on-going
development of easier to use programming languages practically
guarantees it.
Macro languages in spreadsheets are a very good example of this - there
are financial types, 'Er Indoors is a good example, who do things with
Excel that leave me blinking, but have no conception of what the
underlying hardware does.
I have a lot to base this assumption on. But most of all I do not base this
on technology, but on an understanding HUMAN NATURE.
But "human nature" is the most fickle and changeable things to base an
assumption on. Maybe we should arrange a sealed envelope to be opened
in twenty or fifty years, and we'll see just how right each of us is.
(Frankly, I'd bet on us _both_ being wrong.)
Cheers,
Gary B-)