Help! Does anyone know a formula for odds

[nave]

Lets say my horse racing software program spits out the following fina
numbers
Horse #1 11.850

#2 11.659

#3 11.575 etc.

The higher the number the better the horse. Is there a formula i
excel for calculating the odds or probability for each horse to win th
race?

 

[Max]

One way of viewing it?

Assuming you have in A2:B4

H1....11.85
H2....11.659
H3....11.575

Put in B5: =SUM(B2:B4)

Put in C2: =B2/$B$5

Format C2 as say, percentage (to 1 decimal place)

Copy down C2:C5

C2:C4 will give the probabilities of the horses H1 - H3

 

[Max]

One way of viewing it?

Assuming you have in A2:B4

H1....11.85
H2....11.659
H3....11.575

Put in B5: =SUM(B2:B4)

Put in C2: =B2/$B$5

Format C2 as say, percentage (to 1 decimal place)

Copy down C2:C5

C2:C4 will give the probabilities of the horses H1 - H3

 

[nave]

max

Thank you so much. That works! I have been trying to figure that out
for the longest time. Unbelievable. Are you a horse player??

 

[Max]

Nave, you're welcome.

Glad to hear it worked for you.

Thanks for feedback.

(err.. no, I don't dabble in horse racing <g>)

cheers
Max

 

[scottymelloty]

Hi there, i've put this information into use myself and have bee
experimenting, i have now worked out a way to turn your probabilti
figures into bookmaking odds

firstly u need to know what percentage book you are working too for th
race you are doing, ie an 8 runner race a bookmaker would probably d
this to 118% (Add up the odds of real races if you need to know roughl
what they work out too)

next to your probability column lets call that column (H) add this int
Column (I)

in column (I) add this formula for each selection
=((100/118)/h1) the 118 in the formula represents what percentage boo
you are doing

This is what the odds are in decimals ie if it reads 3.11 you take
off which = (roughly)2/1, 4.5 would = 7/2 , 11 would = 10/1 and so on

So u can now see if your ratings make a horse 3.12 (2/1) and th
bookmakers have it at 10/1 then going by your system it is real valu
or if your rating make a horse 21.22 (20/1) and the bookmakers have i
at 5/1 then going by your system it wouldnt be worth betting on as i
wouldnt be any value.


Hope this makes sense






:

 

[nave]

Hi Scottymelloty

Thanks for that interesting reply. Sounds as though you like the
races. Let me pick your brain. I have become a successful player in
recent years due to getting all the edges I can i.e. betting according
to odds receiving a 10% rebate and of course having good numbers. I
mostly play flats but I recently started playing Harness specifically
The Meadowlands at night. Using an Excel spreadsheet which I just
learned taking a couple of 3 hr classes, I created a formula for what i
consider to be important factors in racing, early pace sustained pace
ground loss etc. and convert all numbers into feet per second. Bottom
line my final figures look something like this horse 1) 11.855 feet
per second per 1/16 mile
horse 2) 11.688 "
"
11.685
11.675
11.672
11.669
11.633
11.620
Right now i just key the horse with the longest odds of the first four
contenders but if i can make an oddsline on each contender I know my
plays would be stronger because my numbers are very accurate. Any idea
how to calculate this? What would be the odds of winning on horses 1
thru 8 above?