Excel newbie needs help from math wiz (poker related)

[FISH]

I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker
situations.

Short version: I want to be able to calculate how often my opponent will
need to fold for an all-in raise to show a positive expectation.

Explanation:
In poker you can win a hand by having the best hand at the end OR getting
your opponent to fold.

A common situation comes up where you have a "drawing hand" and face a bet
by your opponent. In this situation you know you are currently behind in the
hand, but have a chance to win if you catch some of your "outs" (cards that
will give you the winning hand).

Example:
You have one of these drawing hands and it will become the winning hand
about 1/3 of the time if you stay in until the end.
There is $150 in the pot and your opponent bets another $100.
If you were to re-raise all in it would be for a total of $300 ($200 in
addition to his $100).
x% of the time my opponent will fold in this spot

I want to be able to solve for x (the amount my opponent will need to fold)
to show me the break even point of this re-raise.

When I re-raise all in he is only left with two options so we need to
account for both. He can call or he can fold:
100% of the time he folds I will win $250
2/3 of the time he calls I miss my draw and lose $300 (the amount I
re-raised all in with)
1/3 of the time I will hit my draw and win $450 ($150 in the original
pot+his $100 bet+his $200 call of my all in re-raise)

So, how can I create an excel workbook/calculation that will calculate the %
my opponent will need to fold for my all in re-raise to break even?


Thanks in advance for any help with this.

 

[Bob I]

I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker
situations.

Short version: I want to be able to calculate how often my opponent will
need to fold for an all-in raise to show a positive expectation.

Explanation:
In poker you can win a hand by having the best hand at the end OR getting
your opponent to fold.

A common situation comes up where you have a "drawing hand" and face a bet
by your opponent. In this situation you know you are currently behind in the
hand, but have a chance to win if you catch some of your "outs" (cards that
will give you the winning hand).

Example:
You have one of these drawing hands and it will become the winning hand
about 1/3 of the time if you stay in until the end.
There is $150 in the pot and your opponent bets another $100.
If you were to re-raise all in it would be for a total of $300 ($200 in
addition to his $100).
x% of the time my opponent will fold in this spot

I want to be able to solve for x (the amount my opponent will need to fold)
to show me the break even point of this re-raise.

When I re-raise all in he is only left with two options so we need to
account for both. He can call or he can fold:
100% of the time he folds I will win $250
2/3 of the time he calls I miss my draw and lose $300 (the amount I
re-raised all in with)
1/3 of the time I will hit my draw and win $450 ($150 in the original
pot+his $100 bet+his $200 call of my all in re-raise)

So, how can I create an excel workbook/calculation that will calculate the %
my opponent will need to fold for my all in re-raise to break even?


Thanks in advance for any help with this.

It seems you have over simplified to the point of useless. example. You
win 1/3 of the time = $450
lose 2/3 of the time = $600 (2 times the 300 that you lose)

Your strategy of an average of 3 hands = $150 in the hole.

 

[FISH]

It seems you have over simplified to the point of useless. example. You
win 1/3 of the time = $450
lose 2/3 of the time = $600 (2 times the 300 that you lose)

Your strategy of an average of 3 hands = $150 in the hole.

BUT the times he will fold could more then make up the difference. Each and
every single time he folds I will win $250. So I'm looking to figure out how
often he will need to fold before this re-raise all in will make sense
(Break even).

So in the original example (below) if I think my opponent will fold half the
time, I will come out ahead, but if I only think my opponent will fold about
1 out of 10 times, I will show a loss by making this raise. Those are
extremes so I'd like to be able to be more accurate and know precisely how
often he will need to fold.

Thanks.

 

[Bob I]

Then you will need to determine the numbers a lot closer than you have.
At the moment it is nothing but conjecture, you have simplified it to
the point that it is useless. If you don't force him to fold you will
lose $50 on average given the numbers you posed. If he folds you win
$250, to break even you must force him to fold 1/6th of the time.

He folds you win $250, he doesn't fold 5 times you lose $250.

1 vs 5 equals 1 of 6 or approximately 17%

 

[FISH]

Thank you Bob,

Yes 1/6th of the time is the correct % he will need to fold for this play
(in this example) to break even. Therefore if I feel he will fold more then
1/6th of the time a raise will be "correct" over the long run. If not, a
raise would show a loss over the long run.


I'm just trying to figure out a calculation I can create in Excel so I can
quickly find this "break even" fold % I need to profitably raise all in.

 

[Bob I]

The "problem" is the money wagered. Percentage is equal to 100/)(How
much you win if he folds)/(average loss if he doesn't)+1).

 

[FISH]

Sorry for the additional request for help, but...how to I enter this info
into an Excel workbook?


I'm looking for a workbook where I can enter in the given info (current pot
size, current bet, chance of winning with my hand, remaining stack size that
can be won or lost). Then find the correct fold % I will need from my
opponent.

 

[Bob I]

You will need to build it yourself. We just called it buying the pot.

 

[FISH]

Well, that was my original question. How to build this in Excel?

If I knew how to do it, I wouldn't of needed to come here and ask for help

 

[GB]

I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker
situations.

Short version: I want to be able to calculate how often my opponent will
need to fold for an all-in raise to show a positive expectation.

Explanation:
In poker you can win a hand by having the best hand at the end OR getting
your opponent to fold.

A common situation comes up where you have a "drawing hand" and face a bet
by your opponent. In this situation you know you are currently behind in the
hand, but have a chance to win if you catch some of your "outs" (cards that
will give you the winning hand).

Example:
You have one of these drawing hands and it will become the winning hand
about 1/3 of the time if you stay in until the end.
There is $150 in the pot and your opponent bets another $100.
If you were to re-raise all in it would be for a total of $300 ($200 in
addition to his $100).
x% of the time my opponent will fold in this spot

I want to be able to solve for x (the amount my opponent will need to fold)
to show me the break even point of this re-raise.

When I re-raise all in he is only left with two options so we need to
account for both. He can call or he can fold:
100% of the time he folds I will win $250
2/3 of the time he calls I miss my draw and lose $300 (the amount I
re-raised all in with)
1/3 of the time I will hit my draw and win $450 ($150 in the original
pot+his $100 bet+his $200 call of my all in re-raise)

So, how can I create an excel workbook/calculation that will calculate the %
my opponent will need to fold for my all in re-raise to break even?


Thanks in advance for any help with this.

Your example is very clear. I made the following simple spreadsheet:

DATA
Prob opponent folds = 33%
Prob I make my draw= 33%
Amount in pot 250
Amount of my re-raise 300

CALCULATIONS
My gain from fold =+B2*B4
My gain from draw-win =(1-B2)*B3*B4
My loss from draw-lose =-(1-B2)*(1-B3)*B5
My overall probable gain =SUM(B8:B10)




The stuff on the left headed DATA goes in column A, and the stuff on the right goes in column B. You can just fiddle about with the probability that opponent folds percentage to make your overall probable gain zero (break-even), or use the in-built solver function.

You really need to read up some simple probability theory to understand this, but there are only two very simple concepts being used:

First, you multiply the probability of an event by its pay-off to get your 'mathematical expectation'.
Second, you multiply probabilities.

HTH

 

[FISH]

GB,

Thanks for the help, but I'm really trying to get the Excel workbook to work
the other way and calculate the break even fold% I'll need to show a 0
expected value (my break even point).

I also tried plugging in the calculation you provided, but couldn't get it
to work. I pasted the data in the A column and the formulas in B, but
couldn't get it to work out correctly.

Thanks again for the help.

I want to create a Excel workbook that will help in specific poker
situations.

Short version: I want to be able to calculate how often my opponent will
need to fold for an all-in raise to show a positive expectation.

Explanation:
In poker you can win a hand by having the best hand at the end OR getting
your opponent to fold.

A common situation comes up where you have a "drawing hand" and face a bet
by your opponent. In this situation you know you are currently behind in
the
hand, but have a chance to win if you catch some of your "outs" (cards
that
will give you the winning hand).

Example:
You have one of these drawing hands and it will become the winning hand
about 1/3 of the time if you stay in until the end.
There is $150 in the pot and your opponent bets another $100.
If you were to re-raise all in it would be for a total of $300 ($200 in
addition to his $100).
x% of the time my opponent will fold in this spot

I want to be able to solve for x (the amount my opponent will need to
fold)
to show me the break even point of this re-raise.

When I re-raise all in he is only left with two options so we need to
account for both. He can call or he can fold:
100% of the time he folds I will win $250
2/3 of the time he calls I miss my draw and lose $300 (the amount I
re-raised all in with)
1/3 of the time I will hit my draw and win $450 ($150 in the original
pot+his $100 bet+his $200 call of my all in re-raise)

So, how can I create an excel workbook/calculation that will calculate the
%
my opponent will need to fold for my all in re-raise to break even?


Thanks in advance for any help with this.

Your example is very clear. I made the following simple spreadsheet:

DATA
Prob opponent folds =33%
Prob I make my draw=33%
Amount in pot250
Amount of my re-raise300

CALCULATIONS
My gain from fold=+B2*B4
My gain from draw-win=(1-B2)*B3*B4
My loss from draw-lose=-(1-B2)*(1-B3)*B5
My overall probable gain=SUM(B8:B10)




The stuff on the left headed DATA goes in column A, and the stuff on the
right goes in column B. You can just fiddle about with the probability that
opponent folds percentage to make your overall probable gain zero
(break-even), or use the in-built solver function.

You really need to read up some simple probability theory to understand
this, but there are only two very simple concepts being used:

First, you multiply the probability of an event by its pay-off to get your
'mathematical expectation'.
Second, you multiply probabilities.

HTH

 

[GB]

GB,

Thanks for the help, but I'm really trying to get the Excel workbook to
work the other way and calculate the break even fold% I'll need to show a
0 expected value (my break even point).

Yes, that's what the solver function does.

I also tried plugging in the calculation you provided, but couldn't get it
to work. I pasted the data in the A column and the formulas in B, but
couldn't get it to work out correctly.

Shame. I have the spreadsheet here, but no means of getting it to you. Can't
you just type the formulae in? That's what I did.

 

[FISH]

I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function" and
how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %?

And yes, I could just plug the formula in, but I'm still confused as to what
formula to put in my workbook.


I know to add the necessary data (the data that will change depending on the
situation such as pot size, raise amount, % I will make my draw, etc...) in
one area and then plug the formula using those cells in another, but I just
don't know what that formula should be in order to find the needed fold %
for a break even expectation.



I know this seems very basic to most of you guys, but I'm just not getting
it for some reason...SORRY.

 

[GB]

I'm not very good with Excel (obviously). What is the "solver function"
and how can I use it to solve for the needed fold %?

And yes, I could just plug the formula in, but I'm still confused as to
what formula to put in my workbook.


I know to add the necessary data (the data that will change depending on
the situation such as pot size, raise amount, % I will make my draw,
etc...) in one area and then plug the formula using those cells in
another, but I just don't know what that formula should be in order to
find the needed fold % for a break even expectation.



I know this seems very basic to most of you guys, but I'm just not getting
it for some reason...SORRY.

Well I wish you luck. The formulae are all there in the spreadsheet I gave
you. The way excel works, it is better to break the formulae down into
smaller bits than to have one large formula.

I would strongly recommend not playing poker for money until you have
improved your maths skills, but if you insist on doing so can I play against
you please? ^.^

 

[FISH]

lol, my poker skills are just a tad bit better then my Excel skills so I am
more then up for the challenge

Which sites do you play on?




PS: I think I got your formula to work the way you set it up, but it doesn't
come out with the right figures. It shows if my opponent folds 33% of the
time it will be about break even, but the correct answer for the break even
point will be about 1/6th.

PSS: How can I use "solver function" to find the needed fold% once I get the
formula to work correctly the way you have it set up?

 

[FISH]

Ok, think I got it to work. I changed the amount of my re-raise to $200 as
it's only a $200 raise of his $100 bet (and the $100 was already added into
the pot size of $250). Once I changed that the results are correct now.

So I'm only left with the question of how to use the "solver function" to
find the needed fold % for my play to break even (rather then having to
"play" around with the fold % to find the break even point)

 

[GB]

PS: I think I got your formula to work the way you set it up, but it
doesn't come out with the right figures. It shows if my opponent folds 33%
of the time it will be about break even, but the correct answer for the
break even point will be about 1/6th.

Sorry. I did not read your example carefully enough. I took the amount you
gained if you win the draw as the amount in the pot. I forgot that your
opponent has to see you. (I think you would trounce me at poker.)

You need an extra item of data, which is the amount you win if your opponent
does not fold but you win the draw. Say you put that amount into cell B6, ie
the $450 figure. Then change the formula for gain from draw-win to
=(1-B2)*B3*B6

All this is doing is calculating:

(1-B2) , which is the chance your opponent does not fold. B2 contains the
chance that your opponent folds. Say this is 17%, then the chance he does
not fold is 100% -17% = 83%. 100% is the same as 1.

This is multiplied by
B3 , which is the chance that you win the draw, ie 33%

This is multiplied by
B6, which is the amount you gain if you win


If you do that, the fold %age works out to be just over17%, as you say.

PSS: How can I use "solver function" to find the needed fold% once I get
the formula to work correctly the way you have it set up?

The way to find the 17% figure is just to change the fold% figure in B2
until the overall gain (B12) is zero. You can do that easily enough by trial
and error. The solver tool does it for you. The tool may be different in
different versions of Excel. This is for Excel 2003:

On the Tools menu, click Goal Seek ... just fill in the 3 boxes and press
ok. The top box should say B12, the middle one 0, and the bottom one B2,
then click ok.

There is a solver tool on the tools menu too, but goal seek is simpler to
use and does the job well enough.

 

[FISH]

Thanks a bunch GB. one last question:

Can I have the "goal seeker" run to find the fold % automatically? I was
able to get it to work, but only when I opened it and manually entered in
the data to run it.

Time will be an issue when I need to figure all this out so I'm trying to
get it to where I can find the needed fold % ASAP.


Thanks again.

 

[GB]

Thanks a bunch GB. one last question:

Can I have the "goal seeker" run to find the fold % automatically? I was
able to get it to work, but only when I opened it and manually entered in
the data to run it.

Time will be an issue when I need to figure all this out so I'm trying to
get it to where I can find the needed fold % ASAP.

Yes, Excel has a very good macro recorder for this sort of thing.

Click on Tools ... Macro .... Record New Macro. This comes up with a little
dialog box which you can mostly ignore. All you need to fill in is the box
which says "shortcut key ctrl+". Stick a j in there and click ok. A little
box appears with a blue button on the left hand side - ignore that for now.

Then just follow through the goal-seek procedure as normal. (Excel is
recording what you are doing.) When you have finished the goal seek
procedure, click on the little blue button in that small box to tell Excel
to stop recording.

That's it. You've recorded a macro that will do the goal seek procedure for
you automatically. To run it, hold down the ctrl key and hit j.

Don't forget to save the new version of your spreadsheet.

 

[FISH]

THANKS for all your help, GB !!!!!

Got it all working great now.