How to spot emerging computer, Internet and other tech. trends.

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Noticedtrends

It's possible to spot emerging computer, Internet, and technology
trends; especially as it applies to responding to security concerns
e.g., malware.

Trend-spotting is done through search strategies using inference by
noting the context of how specific keywords are applied. For example,
if an author of content subconsciously mentions words like 'a growing
trend toward', or even the word 'lately,' this can signal
emerging trends.

Since emerging trends per-se receive very little (yet growing) mentions
within media content; the use of specific keywords naturally
narrows-down the number of search results; yet greatly increases the
percentage of search-results on growing trends.

'Rootkits,' a form of malware have been gaining attention lately.
Here is a sample search using the occurrence of words 'rootkits'
and 'lately.'

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...y"+malware++"july+2006"&as_qdr=m3&btnG=Search

---For specific dates: 'July 2006'OR 'July * 2006' applies an
asterisk to indicate specific dates, and infers up-to-date content; yet
some Internet sites contain older content. Many trade and professional
publications post-date content e.g., 'August, 2006'

--- The asterisk character "*" is a wild-card character that also
indicates two words NEAR each other.

The term 'lately' can be applied in different ways.

--(search term(s)) lately.

-- lately (search term(s))

-- lately * (search term(s)).

-- (search term(s)) * lately.

* Other keywords:

--"Growing trend toward"

-- "A sharp increase."

-- "becoming more."

-- "becoming increasingly"

* Different combinations of keywords also yield content indicating
possible trends to watch. It's also important to apply keywords
describing specific:

-- Jargon.

-- Products

-- Services

-- Companies

-- Names of publications.

-- Or any other miscellaneous terms.

Search-results are very subjective. After all, inference requires
"human input" to "separate the wheat from the chaff" as search
engines can't automatically yield relevant trend information.

Trend-spotting through inference may even act "as a practice of
sorts" for spotting new trends through intuition even before any
relevant content is published!
 
Noticedtrends said:
It's possible to spot emerging computer, Internet, and technology
trends; especially as it applies to responding to security concerns
e.g., malware.

Trend-spotting is done through search strategies using inference by
noting the context of how specific keywords are applied. For example,
if an author of content subconsciously mentions words like 'a growing
trend toward', or even the word 'lately,' this can signal
emerging trends.

Since emerging trends per-se receive very little (yet growing) mentions
within media content; the use of specific keywords naturally
narrows-down the number of search results; yet greatly increases the
percentage of search-results on growing trends.

'Rootkits,' a form of malware have been gaining attention lately.
Here is a sample search using the occurrence of words 'rootkits'
and 'lately.'
Click to expand...
Trend-spotting through inference may even act "as a practice of
sorts" for spotting new trends through intuition even before any
relevant content is published!
Click to expand...

I just don't think that will work very well for computer security and
malware trending and risk assessment, no matter how well you try to remove
media articles from the search results. You might find out whether public
interest and awareness in root kits is trending up or down, but I'm not sure
how that information is useful?

Internet search results simply show how much people are concerned and aware
of security trends. The fact that more or fewer people may be searching for
root kits doesn't tell me whether root kits are a bigger or smaller risk to
my particular environment and countermeasures, and I wouldn't really expect
this method to give me fast warning of a new threat. Very often there are
security threats that are over-covered in media articles and in public
panic. IE vulns like Download.ject cause a lot of panic and media articles,
but very few infections [less than 750 worldwide to date detected by Trend
Micro] compared to old, boring email viruses that are not as new and
exciting but cause less coverage. There are also threats that cau
 
I just don't think that will work very well for computer security and
malware trending and risk assessment, no matter how well you try to remove
media articles from the search results.
Click to expand...

You might find out whether public
interest and awareness in root kits is trending up or down, but I'm not sure
how that information is useful?
Click to expand...
Specific publications, blogs, etc. that focus on the computer,
technological, Internet zietgeist is the content to analyze. The
semi-specialty content PCWorld, (is PC Magazine a semi-general or
semi-specialty publication?) and specialty content www.Internetnews.com
enhanced discussion on rootkits; long before the more general media
discusses security concerns; which of course discussions can become
misleading at these points.
Internet search results simply show how much people are concerned and aware
of security trends.
Click to expand...

Actually, a content-analysis by inference is an excellent means of
discerning an emerging technological, Internet and "related-social"
zietgeist that does not focus heavily on security concerns.

The fact that more or fewer people may be searching for
root kits doesn't tell me whether root kits are a bigger or smaller risk to
my particular environment and countermeasures, and I wouldn't really expect
this method to give me fast warning of a new threat. Very often there are
security threats that are over-covered in media articles and in public
panic. IE vulns like Download.ject cause a lot of panic and media articles,
but very few infections [less than 750 worldwide to date detected by Trend
Micro] compared to old, boring email viruses that are not as new and
exciting but cause less coverage.
Click to expand...

What was this saying?: 'There are also threats that cau'
 
Noticedtrends said:
It's possible to spot emerging computer, Internet, and technology
trends; especially as it applies to responding to security concerns
e.g., malware.

Trend-spotting is done through search strategies using inference by
noting the context of how specific keywords are applied. For example,
if an author of content subconsciously mentions words like 'a growing
trend toward', or even the word 'lately,' this can signal
emerging trends.

Since emerging trends per-se receive very little (yet growing) mentions
within media content; the use of specific keywords naturally
narrows-down the number of search results; yet greatly increases the
percentage of search-results on growing trends.

'Rootkits,' a form of malware have been gaining attention lately.
Here is a sample search using the occurrence of words 'rootkits'
and 'lately.'

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...y"+malware++"july+2006"&as_qdr=m3&btnG=Search

---For specific dates: 'July 2006'OR 'July * 2006' applies an
asterisk to indicate specific dates, and infers up-to-date content; yet
some Internet sites contain older content. Many trade and professional
publications post-date content e.g., 'August, 2006'

--- The asterisk character "*" is a wild-card character that also
indicates two words NEAR each other.

The term 'lately' can be applied in different ways.

--(search term(s)) lately.

-- lately (search term(s))

-- lately * (search term(s)).

-- (search term(s)) * lately.

* Other keywords:

--"Growing trend toward"

-- "A sharp increase."

-- "becoming more."

-- "becoming increasingly"

* Different combinations of keywords also yield content indicating
possible trends to watch. It's also important to apply keywords
describing specific:

-- Jargon.

-- Products

-- Services

-- Companies

-- Names of publications.

-- Or any other miscellaneous terms.
Click to expand...
Here is another example of a search that focus on a speific
publication.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...site:www.trendmicro.com&as_qdr=m3&btnG=Search


The trend: Keeping ahead of spyware is becoming increasingly labor
intensive.
 
Noticedtrends said:
Specific publications, blogs, etc. that focus on the computer,
technological, Internet zietgeist is the content to analyze. The
semi-specialty content PCWorld, (is PC Magazine a semi-general or
semi-specialty publication?) and specialty content
www.Internetnews.com enhanced discussion on rootkits; long before the
more general media discusses security concerns; which of course
discussions can become misleading at these points.
Click to expand...

You're right that new threats will be talked about in blogs and the
specialised online press before the popular media picks up on them, but
how is that useful when, by the time it reaches a noticable level in blog
traffic, a threat is likely to be out there causing damage.

Hearing about rootkits on Tuesday is no help if I installed one on your
machine and stole your bank details on Monday, no matter that the rest of
the world finds out Wednesday, that one day advance warning didn't stop me
ripping you off before you found out.

--
--
Rob Moir, Microsoft MVP for Security
Blog Site - http://www.robertmoir.com
Virtual PC 2004 FAQ -
http://www.robertmoir.co.uk/win/VirtualPC2004FAQ.html
I'm always surprised at "professionals" who STILL have to be asked:
"Have you checked (event viewer / syslog)".
 
Robert said:
You're right that new threats will be talked about in blogs and the
specialised online press before the popular media picks up on them, but
how is that useful when, by the time it reaches a noticable level in blog
traffic, a threat is likely to be out there causing damage.

Hearing about rootkits on Tuesday is no help if I installed one on your
machine and stole your bank details on Monday, no matter that the rest of
the world finds out Wednesday, that one day advance warning didn't stop me
ripping you off before you found out.

--
--
Rob Moir, Microsoft MVP for Security
Blog Site - http://www.robertmoir.com
Virtual PC 2004 FAQ -
http://www.robertmoir.co.uk/win/VirtualPC2004FAQ.html
I'm always surprised at "professionals" who STILL have to be asked:
"Have you checked (event viewer / syslog)".
Click to expand...

What is the progress of anomaly detection (that incorporates AI
Artificial Intelligence) to respond to emerging malware threats?

Trend-spotting through inference can also advance with progress in AI
methods. To spot emerging-trends through inference is really detection
of 'semantic anomalies' or 'pattern recognition' where technologies
would discern meaning and context of words, phrases, etc.

The Microsoft WORD's AUTOSUMMARIZE feature was quite an advance in
semantic analysis.
 
What is the progress of anomaly detection (that incorporates AI
Artificial Intelligence) to respond to emerging malware threats?

Trend-spotting through inference can also advance with progress in AI
methods. To spot emerging-trends through inference is really detection
of 'semantic anomalies' or 'pattern recognition' where technologies
would discern meaning and context of words, phrases, etc.

The Microsoft WORD's AUTOSUMMARIZE feature was quite an advance in
semantic analysis.
Click to expand...

I guess what we're trying to say is that semantic analysis is not a useful
tool for analyzing emerging malware threats. It instead analyzes AWARENESS
and DISCUSSION of emerging malware threats. These things might be helpful
to someone in a different discipline than ours.
 
I guess what we're trying to say is that semantic analysis is not a useful
tool for analyzing emerging malware threats. It instead analyzes AWARENESS
and DISCUSSION of emerging malware threats. These things might be helpful
to someone in a different discipline than ours.
Click to expand...

Content published by experts who have had experince in spotting malware
threats is worth a 'semanatic analysis' by computer/tech. people who
are not fully up-to-date on specific malware concerns.

Another trend to watch; 'The technology industries are becoming
increasingly interested in 'lead users' e.g., power-users who seem to
be a "barometer of sorts" for emerging comp/tech markets.

This post in the 'microsoft.public.security' newsgroup discusses
'anomaly detection' in order to spot "difficult to detect" rootkits.

Fourth post mentions anomaly detection.
http://groups.google.com/group/micr...e3de9?lnk=st&q=&rnum=4&hl=en#1ae19e7a471e3de9
 
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