Dani,
Depending on your sophistication needs, I can point to you to a few
commercial products.
To do complex decision trees on Excel without having a strong programming
background will be very difficult. And that is being generous.
If you have only 2 or 3 branches, then you just need to figure out your
logic.
But if you are after the value of imperfect information and topics of that
sort, then you will need something more robust.
After that long introduction, I will provide you with some links:
1) Merak (now part of Schlumberger) makes an excellent product (I have used
it) as part of their decision toolkit. I linked their program into Excel
and was able to evaluate a complex offshore oil project. It might not be
the strongest in terms of features, but it very easy to use.
http://www.sis.slb.com/content/software/valuerisk/software_decisiontoolkit.asp
2) I have worked with SDG (Strategic Decisions Group) many years ago, and
they had software that was quite good. I am not sure if they still have a
and support a software package. I saw reference to it during my web
browsing, it is expensive but very, very good. I have used this applicated
called SuperTree.
http://www.sdg.com/home.nsf/sdg/home
I suggest you call or e-mail and inquire.
3) DPL is purported to be a very strong decision analysis package that
interacts with Excel, though I have never used it so I can't comment on it
directly.
http://www.adainc.com/software/index.html
4) Look at Palisade's Precision Tree product. I am aware of this product
but have not used it.
http://www.palisade.com/html/ptree.asp
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The above mentioned commercial applications are some of the better known
commercial applications. It is not an exhaustive list.
5) Various others...you can google for Excel Decision Tree and get some
options.
Here is one very moderately priced ($29) option for you....
http://www.treeplan.com/
Now that I have browsed the Internet...here is a site that summarizes what I
have been busily typing.
http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/daweb/dasw6.htm
Well, I have provided you with lots of references.
Good luck.
Regards,
Kevin